ProBassAnglers.com's 

Coverage Of The

2006 Bassmaster Classic

Predictions-Keith Nighswonger

Keith Nighswonger, 45, is just a fan.  He does write that silly old Brushpile, but when all the dust settles, he is just that, a fan.

I suppose if I am going to act like the big boys, I had better cast a line out and make my own predictions for next week's Bassmaster Classic, the trouble I am having is that I don't want to simply go with the flow and pick Terry Scroggins like every other "picker" has done.  I don't want to say that just because he lives there, understands each unique species of grass, talks to the fish, (and they tell him secrets,) and has an outstanding record for grassy, Florida Lakes, that Scroggins is going to win, but the truth is, he has to be the pick of any sane "tourny-ment-picker."

Anyway, throwing caution to the wind, here is what I think....

#1-Tim Horton (Scientific Choice/The Numbers Choice).  "Aside from Scroggins, who I will get to in a minute, Horton has an outstanding record on Florida lakes, and outside of someone who lives there, just might be the best pro on Florida lakes, who lives outside of the state.  Consider these Bassmaster tournament results:  1st on Okeechobee in November of 2004 in a Southern Open event, 1st at Lake Toho in December of 2001 at a BASS Tour event.  Numerous top tens throughout his career, and more importantly, a quiet determination that tells me he is focused."  Horton is that Classic win away from taking his place beside the Kevin VanDams and the Jay Yelas (es) of the world, and this might be his best chance yet to do it."

#2-Terry Scroggins (The Obvious Choice) "Geez this is terrible, but I find myself thinking of reasons why he won't win this event to offset what everybody else is saying. First, the reasons why Scroggins will win are that he lives in Florida, which gives more time on the waters than anybody else, as Kelly Jordon mentioned in his predictions, if conditions change, he will be the one most likely to react the quickest.  Scroggins has also done very well in Florida lakes, finishing 6th at Toho in last year's tour stop, which is about the same time of year as this Classic.

There is also this bit of inside, around the lake gossip, Scroggins threw out that he had 25 bites during one of his days of pre fishing, (BassFan interview 2/16,) word is that he may be trying to get into the heads of other competitors, however if he did get into that kind of bite, it is because he is fishing moving water.  It seems the locks between Kissimmee and the river that flows out of it into Okeechobee has been wide open creating tremendous current, which has led to a good bite.  Scroggins is known to fish in the Southern end of Kissimmee.  This could account for the bites.  

Now, why Scroggins could struggle.  It figures that Scroggins will have the flotilla with him in this event.  Like Jason Quinn at Lake Wiley in 2004, well wishers and observers figure to announce his every movement as they follow him around the chain.  Also of note, it is kind of hard to figure out what is going on with the water levels in the four lakes, but it figures that the moving water, (which really helps the fishing in the chain,) will stabilize in Kissimmee which means the bite would slow.

#3 Aaron Martens (Bride's Maid No More!!) Martens does well in Florida, including an 85 pound effort over four days at Lake Toho in the now famous "Dean Rojas Record" event in January of 2001.  Imagine, you catch 85 pounds in four days and you don't win, you don't even finish 2nd, (Mark Davis had 93.10)  Martens finished 3rd in that famous event, and with the water warming, he WILL be up there in the standings.  Martens also has a 6th place finish at the Harris Chain in February of 2005 in the BASS Tour event.

Martens is a bit of a puzzle as none of my on the water spies has seen him this past week.  That tells me that Aaron has found an area away from the beaten path and that can spell trouble for the rest of the field.

#4 George Cochran, Jay Yelas and Ron Shuffield (Sentimental Picks) Each of these pros with storied BASS careers are fishing perhaps their last Bassmaster Classic.  George Cochran has won two Bassmaster Classics, (1996 and 1987.)  Cochran, you might remember got a little excited when he won $500,000.00 at the FLW Tour Championship last Summer and then remarked that he would only fish FLW in the future.  Those comments went over real well when he fished the Classic a few weeks later, and may have been the root of controversy when he was blind-sided on the weigh in stage about crowding  in Jimmy Mize's water.  This is Cochran's 22nd and most likely last Classic appearance.

Jay Yelas, who won the Classic in 2002 has also moved to FLW only events, which figures to make this season's Classic, his last.  Fishing in his 16th Classic, Yelas has had a storied career fishing BASS Events.

Ron Shuffield is also fishing in his last Classic.  Shuffield, who has not won a Classic does have 7 BASS wins, and did win the 1999 Mega Bucks event at Old Hickory in Tennessee, which at the time actually paid out better than the Classic.  Shuffield is fishing his 15th Classic.

#5 Preston Clark (Dark horse) Qualified for two Classics when he finished 15th on the 2005 Tour.  He is a Florida resident, living in the same home town, Palatka as tournament favorite, Terry Scroggins, in fact the two are good friends.  Clark figures to have some good local knowledge, which means he should be able to adjust well when conditions change.  It also figures that he will not have to deal with the "flotilla factor," as most locals will want to watch Scroggins.  If any "unknown name" comes from out of the pack, I expect his name to be Preston Clark.